Super El Niño Smashes Another Pacific Heat Record

This super El Niño is rewriting the record books, and scientists are running out of comparisons. According to BBC Weather, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology says average weekly sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific have reached their highest level on record, weeks before the expected December peak.

That is a big deal for anyone who likes predictable seasons, cheap groceries or a planet that does not keep breaking its own thermometer. A super El Niño is not just a weather nerd story. It reshuffles rain, drought, storms and global temperatures for months.

What the records actually say

The BBC reports that temperatures above thirty degrees Celsius have been recorded for the first time in parts of the tropical Pacific, alongside record temperature anomalies and exceptional warmth below the surface. Scientists also declared a new daily record for central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures in September, beating the mark set in the very strong El Niño of 2015.

Europe's climate monitor backs this up. According to RTE, the Copernicus Climate Change Service said the Niño3.4 region, the zone used to track El Niño, hit an all-time high of 29.70C last month. Copernicus also found that global average sea surface temperature for September hit a record 21.05C, topping the previous high of 20.92C.

Why scientists are using a new yardstick

The ocean is warming from human-driven climate change, which makes old comparisons tricky. So Australian and US forecasters now use a Relative Ocean El Niño Index, which strips out that background warming so events can be compared fairly.

Even on that stricter measure, the Bureau's weekly data now exceeds the levels seen in the record-breaking December of 2015. The data only goes back to 2008, which is worth remembering, but the signal is still loud.

Berkeley Earth climate scientist Dr Zeke Hausfather told the BBC: "We are currently witnessing an El Niño event that is unprecedented in the historical record." He called the latest projections "astonishing" and said they are likely to set new records "by a remarkable amount".

Where the super El Niño is already hitting

The full impacts are expected later this year and into next year, but some are already visible. The World Meteorological Organization says drought and flood disruption is being reported in several regions, with growing worries about food security in parts of East Africa and the Asia-Pacific.

History offers a preview. In 1997 and 1998, severe drought across south-east Asia fed huge peat and forest fires, while parts of East Africa saw devastating floods. In 2015 and 2016, southern Africa endured one of its worst droughts in decades. Strong El Niño years also tend to suppress Atlantic hurricanes while boosting activity in parts of the Pacific, a pattern seen again in 2026.

No two events play out the same way, so the strength of an El Niño does not automatically tell you how bad it gets in your town.

Is climate change making it stronger?

This is the part people argue about. The WMO says there is currently no evidence that climate change makes El Niño events stronger or more frequent, though it remains an active research question. What is clearer is the heat. El Niño releases extra warmth from the ocean into the air, and on top of human-caused warming that should help make 2026 one of the warmest years on record, with high temperatures likely to carry into 2027.

What to watch next

Every new weekly update from the Bureau matters, because this super El Niño is still gaining strength. Check our science desk for more on how the oceans are changing.

Forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration both point to a December peak. The WMO expects Pacific temperatures to climb to record levels through October, November and December.

If you want to follow the fallout, keep an eye on food prices, monsoon and drought reports, and hurricane tallies. Our climate emergency coverage will keep tracking it. The big takeaway is simple: this super El Niño is still strengthening, and the biggest tests are still ahead.