Record El Niño Is Here and It's Still Getting Stronger

The record El Niño is officially here. Japan's weather agency said on Friday that the Pacific climate pattern has become the strongest it has ever measured, and forecasters say it is not done climbing yet.

According to The Japan Times, sea surface temperatures in the patch of the tropical Pacific monitored by the Japan Meteorological Agency were 4 degrees Celsius above normal as of September. That is the highest in records going back to 1949. The previous record was set in December 1997, when the anomaly hit 3.7 C, the agency said.

What El Niño actually is

El Niño is a naturally occurring weather pattern that warms surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. That warm patch shifts winds, pressure and rainfall around the world. It shows up every two to seven years, but this one is behaving like nothing forecasters have handled before.

Earlier this year scientists described the speed of the warming as uncharted territory, according to IFLScience. The World Meteorological Organization says its tracked anomaly jumped from +1.6 C in June to +2.5 C in August. It now projects roughly +3.7 C across October to December, which would also be a record.

Why the number matters

WMO chief Celeste Saulo put it bluntly in a statement quoted by IFLScience: "El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950."

The two agencies measure slightly different patches of ocean, so their numbers do not match exactly. The Japanese bureau watches the Niño 3 region, while the WMO projection uses Niño 3.4, which sits a bit further west. Both point the same way, though: stronger, and lasting through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

The US Climate Prediction Center agrees, according to the Japan Times report, saying the event is certain to last through January to March. The WMO adds that it will keep intensifying through October and November before peaking in December.

The damage is already showing up

This is not a future problem. The climate event has already been linked to the weakest Indian monsoon in more than a decade, per the Japan Times. It has also worsened wildfires in Indonesia that have sent toxic smoke over Singapore and Malaysia, and it threatens sugar and coffee output in Brazil.

IFLScience notes Earth just had its hottest August on record, and the contiguous US had its hottest September since records began. Scientists say part of that is long-term climate change and part is normal variation, but El Niño very likely played an important role in the extremes.

Who gets soaked and who gets scorched

The WMO expects wetter-than-normal conditions across the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, coastal East Asia, the northern Arabian Peninsula, parts of North America south of 45 degrees north, and southeastern South America. That raises the risk of floods and landslides.

Drier conditions are expected over the Indian subcontinent, southern Central America, parts of the Caribbean and northwestern South America. That sets the stage for drought and more wildfires, which is exactly what Indonesia is already living through.

Why it could make next year hotter too

Saulo told the Global Heat Forum in Bangkok that El Niño does not add new heat to the planet. It releases heat the ocean has already been storing beneath the surface. "The ocean it's drawing from is the warmest we've ever measured it," she said, which means there is simply more heat available to release.

That is why a strong event so often becomes one of the hottest years measured. The Japan Times points out that many record-hot years, including 1998, 2010, 2016, 2023 and 2024, followed major El Niño events or developed alongside them. Expect 2027 temperature records to be on the table.

What to watch next

The next big checkpoint is December, when the WMO expects the event to peak. Farmers, insurers and governments are already trying to work out what a record El Niño means for crop prices, food costs and disaster budgets. Brazil's coffee and sugar harvests are an early test.

If you want more on how a warming planet is reshaping the news cycle, browse our Climate Emergency coverage and our Science desk. The short version: the ocean just set a record, and the weather is about to feel it.

For the full forecast language, read the WMO statement directly, since the agency says the strongest effects are still ahead.