El Niño Forecast: WMO Warns of a Record-Strong Event

The latest El Niño forecast from the UN weather agency is a jaw-dropper: the Pacific is on track for its hottest ocean readings since records began, and the event is still strengthening. On October 8, the World Meteorological Organization said El Niño could be one of the strongest seen since at least 1950.

What the WMO actually said

In its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, the WMO said El Niño will keep intensifying ahead of a forecast peak in December. According to the WMO's release on ReliefWeb, the seasonal average Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is forecast to reach about +3.7°C for October to December.

That would be the highest since observations began. The previous record was +2.6°C, set between November 2015 and January 2016. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo put it bluntly: "El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly."

She added that "WMO forecasts indicate a near-100% likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950." That near-certainty is notable, and one outlet reported it was the first time one of the agency's El Niño updates had been so unequivocal.

Why the ocean is the story

Here's the part that matters for the climate conversation. Saulo told the Global Heat Forum in Bangkok that El Niño does not add new heat to the planet. It releases heat the ocean has already been storing, according to the WMO.

"The ocean it's drawing from is the warmest we've ever measured it," she said. In plain terms, there is simply more stored heat available to dump into the atmosphere this time around, which is why strong events so often become some of the hottest years measured, as with 2024.

The speed is wild too. The Niño 3.4 index jumped from an average of +1.6°C above normal in June 2026 to +2.5°C in August. That is a steep climb in just two months, and the forecast says it is not done.

Heat, floods and health risks

An El Niño shifts rainfall patterns worldwide. Some regions get drought, while others get unusually heavy rain and flooding. According to ABP Live, the warning lands as global temperatures remain exceptionally high, with Copernicus reporting that August's average of 16.96°C matched July 2023 as the hottest month on record.

The same report points to a University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab study released last month. It projected that an exceptionally strong event could contribute to as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027.

The impacts will not be even. Regional effects differ, and the WMO says the event will compound the effects of human-caused climate change. Think extreme heat in some places and crop-killing dry spells in others, all landing in the same winter.

The food angle nobody should skip

The World Food Programme is already sounding the alarm. Richard Choularton, a WFP official, said in a WFP interview that "it's very likely this El Niño will be the strongest ever," meaning projections for more intense and widespread floods, storms and droughts.

He said the early impacts have already shown up in Central America and the Sahel. In Southern Africa, higher fuel prices make plowing more expensive, so less farmland gets planted, and a drought on top could mean very serious food security impacts emerging in 2027.

What to watch next

The next big marker is December, when the forecast peak arrives. Watch whether the Pacific actually hits that +3.7°C mark, and whether 2027 starts with another run of record global temperatures. The WMO forecast is a consensus drawn from 13 national and international forecasting centres, so this is not one lab's hot take.

For anyone who cares about the planet, this is the moment where the climate crisis stops being an abstract chart and starts showing up in grocery bills, flood maps and heat alerts. Keep following our climate emergency coverage, and check our science section for what researchers learn as this El Niño forecast plays out.

The takeaway is simple. The ocean has been quietly banking heat for years, and this El Niño is the withdrawal. The forecast says it will be big, and it says it will be long, with effects stretching well into 2027.