Black Friday Is Getting Bigger as Deal Hunters Strike

Black Friday is about to have its biggest weekend on record, and the deal-hunters are already circling. A new forecast from Bain & Company says sales across the long shopping weekend will climb past eighty-five billion dollars, as shoppers treat the event as the official starting gun for the holiday season.

Seven in ten shoppers plan to buy something over the Black Friday to Cyber Monday stretch, up from just under two-thirds a year ago, according to the firm's consumer survey. Close to two in three say they will shop the Friday itself, compared with just over half last year, while more than four in ten plan to hit Cyber Monday, up from 41 percent a year earlier, putting the online day on track to crack the five biggest sales days of the season for the first time.

The numbers behind the forecast

The projection puts weekend growth at nearly nine percent year over year, well ahead of the consultancy's broader holiday outlook of about four and a half percent. All told, the firm expects total United States holiday sales to cross the trillion-dollar mark for the first time, powered by both store traffic and online orders.

"Black Friday and Cyber Monday are becoming increasingly important battlegrounds for retailers, especially as US consumers prioritize value and deal-heavy shopping days," Aaron Cheris, the firm's global head of retail, said in the release. He added that retailers leaning into personalized promotions and can't-miss events will set themselves up for the rest of the season.

The forecast draws on the consultancy's own consumer survey plus transaction data from its Pyxis intelligence unit, which tracks credit card spending. That mix of stated intent and actual card swipes is why the firm is confident the Friday will hold its crown as the season's top sales day. The timing helps planners too: the numbers landed in mid-October, giving shoppers roughly six weeks to build a list before the late-November rush.

Why shoppers keep showing up

The bigger story is behavioral. Nine in ten shoppers say they plan to buy during one of the marquee sales days or another major event, a sign that deal season has stretched far beyond a single morning of doorbusters. Even so, the calendar still matters: last year, six of the ten biggest sales days landed in the final two weekends before Christmas, so the late-November rush is only the opening act.

Value is the throughline. Shoppers are guarding every dollar this year, the same budget-guarding instinct Gen Z showed with vacation spending this fall, and the same value-hunting reflex behind young shoppers buying gold bars at Costco in bulk. The hunt for markdowns now starts weeks before the weekend itself. Price alerts, comparison tabs, and wishlist stalking have replaced the old crack-of-dawn parking-lot line.

That discipline has a side hustle footnote. With extra income from side gigs padding more budgets, some shoppers head into the weekend with a dedicated deal fund rather than credit card debt. The weekend rewards the planners: the shoppers who research early tend to spend less per item and waste less on impulse buys.

What it means for your wallet

If you plan to shop the weekend, treat it like a project. Make the list now, set price alerts on the big-ticket items, and decide your hard budget before the promotions start rewriting it. Retailers count on urgency; a list is the simplest counterweight.

Stack the tactics that actually move prices. Check the price history on anything over a hundred dollars, compare the "doorbuster" against at least two other stores, and remember that many retailers will match their own later markdowns if you ask within the return window. Signing up for a store's free loyalty program a week early often unlocks member pricing without costing a cent.

One caveat worth keeping in mind: forecasts like this one count dollars, not units. When prices rise, the same cart costs more, so a record total does not always mean shoppers bought more stuff. The per-person number is usually the honest one, and the smart move is to compare this year's prices against what you actually paid last year, not against the advertised "was" price.

The bottom line is that Black Friday keeps getting bigger because shoppers keep showing up with a plan. Go in with yours, and the weekend works for you instead of the other way around.