B.C. Cities Near Driest October on Record

Vancouver and Victoria are on track for the driest October on record in both cities, according to The Weather Network. As of October 18, Vancouver had received just 9.5 millimetres of rain, or 8 per cent of its monthly average of 123.9 millimetres.

Victoria is further behind. The capital has recorded 2.6 millimetres of rain against a normal October total of 96.1 millimetres, about three per cent of the usual amount. So far this year, Victoria has received 349.1 millimetres of precipitation, just over half of its average for January through October.

A ridge is holding back the autumn storms

The cause is a ridge of high pressure parked over the northeastern Pacific. It is creating a blocking pattern that steers the usual fall storm systems north toward Alaska and the Yukon instead of into southwestern British Columbia. The south coast is now at least one hundred millimetres short of the rain it would normally see by this point in October.

Isolated showers are possible Friday and Saturday from a weak cold front, but significant rainfall is unlikely before early next week, The Weather Network reported. Long-range computer models hint at a stronger low-pressure system developing offshore that could bring widespread rain, though confidence remains low. (The Weather Network)

Record warmth adds to the strain

The dry spell has come with unusual heat. Vancouver International Airport reached 21.7°C on Friday, the warmest reading at the station this late in the year and the ninth-highest October temperature on record. It was also the warmest October day there since 21.8°C was recorded on October 1, 2010.

An unusually strong ridge across the Pacific Northwest drove the heat, and the southern half of the province is expected to stay unusually dry over the next five days. Moisture deficits of 50 to 100 millimetres are expected over the next 10 days, just as the fall storm season would normally begin. (The Weather Network)

Low reservoirs and renewed restrictions

The dry autumn follows a parched year. BC Hydro reported that cumulative inflows into the Comox Lake reservoir on Vancouver Island since May are the lowest in 64 years, with October inflows tracking at 19 per cent of normal and September ranking as the fourth-driest September on the reservoir's record, according to local reporting on the utility's figures. The Comox Valley has reinstated Stage 3 water restrictions, and the Cumberland Lake Park Society closed a boat ramp because of the low water level.

Conservation groups are watching for effects on salmon spawning, which depends on autumn rains to lift stream levels. The province has already acted to protect fish this year: in July it issued a temporary protection order for the Salmon River watershed to safeguard Chinook salmon during severe drought, and in August a similar order took effect for Bessette Creek, covering 131 water licence holders. The Salmon River order was later rescinded so water could support firefighting, but streamflows remain low.

BC Hydro spokesperson Karla Louwers said the utility was hoping the fall rains would return to ease the situation. Environment Canada meteorologist Terri Lang noted that a weak system would pass through with some rainfall, but the long-term forecast pointed to a return to above-average temperatures and dry conditions.

Relief may arrive by Tuesday

The dry spell may break this week. Environment Canada issued a rainfall warning on Monday for Metro Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Howe Sound, West Vancouver Island and the Central and North Coasts, in a statement reported by Global News. A robust frontal system moving over the Lower Mainland on Monday night could bring as much as seventy millimetres of rain, with the heaviest totals on the Central Coast. The heavy rain should ease by Tuesday afternoon, and the warning asks drivers to watch for pooling water on roads and in low-lying areas.

The longer outlook is complicated by a strengthening El Niño. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reported that the latest weekly Niño-3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly reached +2.4°C, favouring warmer-than-average conditions across much of the northern United States and Canada this winter. The authors of the 2026 State of the Climate report say a very strong El Niño expected to develop this fall could add substantially to global warming in the coming months, putting 2026 on track to be one of the hottest years on record, according to an Oregon State University news release. (Oregon State University; see also: Earth's vital signs hit records as 2026 climate report warns)

It has been an active stretch for Pacific weather: Super Typhoon Champi grazed Guam just days ago, cutting power to half the island and prompting a federal emergency declaration. (Guam typhoon Champi triggers emergency declaration) B.C. watershed advocates warn that a milder winter could mean less mountain snowpack, compounding existing drought into next year: polling cited by the B.C. Watershed Coalition found 71 per cent of British Columbians are concerned about a major water crisis in their community, up from 57 per cent in 2018.