Thanksgiving Dinner Will Cost More This Year

Thanksgiving Dinner is getting more expensive again. A new forecast from the consulting firm PwC puts the average American family's holiday meal at about ninety dollars this year, up from about eighty-eight last year, with turkey prices up nearly eight percent. The estimate was reported by ABC7 New York on October 16, and it lands just as young hosts start planning their first Friendsgivings.

The headline number is a private-sector projection, not a government figure, and PwC has not published the full item list behind it. That matters for anyone setting a holiday budget, because the final cost depends on store promotions, the size of the bird, and how many sides make the table. Still, the direction lines up with federal data showing turkey prices higher than last year and whole-bird supplies tight.

What is actually pushing the bill up

Ali Furman, the consumer markets industry leader at PwC, pointed to turkey as the main driver but flagged some relief elsewhere in the cart. Butter is down about ten percent and cream is down about six percent, she said, which should help offset the increases for anyone baking pies or mashing potatoes. The estimate is not directly comparable to the American Farm Bureau Federation's famous annual survey, which uses a different menu and method: its 2025 survey priced a classic dinner for ten at about fifty-five dollars, or roughly five and a half dollars per person. The federation's 2026 survey is expected in November.

Canada offers a preview of what American shoppers may face, since Canadians celebrated Thanksgiving on October 12. A report from the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University put a traditional turkey dinner for four at just under thirty-six dollars in 2026, roughly a tenth higher than last year — an increase of roughly three dollars and twenty-four cents. Turkey accounted for most of the jump, with seven pounds of bird estimated at about twelve and a half dollars, up from about ten and a half dollars in 2025.

Sylvain Charlebois, the lab's senior director, said the poultry sector has been under pressure as high beef prices pushed demand toward poultry, while production costs rose in a supply-managed sector. He added a useful caveat for bargain hunters: the researchers did not visit stores, so unannounced deals could beat the estimate. The report also notes that carrots look pricier this year partly because of a methodology change — last year's basket used a promotional price — while a ten-pound bag of potatoes held steady at about seven dollars.

How first-time hosts can beat the forecast

The good news for Thanksgiving Dinner planners is that a forecast is not a bill, and holiday groceries respond to strategy more than almost any other shopping trip. Promotions do the heaviest lifting: turkey is the most discounted item in the November grocery calendar, and the stores that advertise loss-leader birds count on you buying everything else at full price. Shop the bird where it is cheapest and the sides where you already shop.

Lean into the bright spots in the data. With butter and cream cheaper than last year, the baking-heavy dishes — pies, dinner rolls, mashed potatoes — are the ones to make from scratch rather than buy premade. Store brands cover the rest: cranberry sauce, broth, and frozen vegetables are where name brands charge the most for the least difference.

For group dinners, split the math before you split the cooking. Friendsgiving works best as a potluck with a shared spreadsheet, and it avoids the awkward money dynamics that go viral every holiday season — the kind of friendship ledger blowups one recent story about splitting a sixty-five-dollar dinner captured perfectly. Assign the expensive proteins to the people with the biggest kitchens, not the biggest budgets, and keep receipts in the group chat.

Some shoppers are skipping the cooking entirely, and at least one opinion writer has argued the warehouse bundle beats cooking for big crowds. For smaller households, though, the smarter comparison is the mixed strategy: grocery-store mains plus a few homemade sides consistently beats both all-homemade and all-premade on cost. Thanksgiving Dinner rewards the hybrid approach — a sale-priced bird, scratch sides where dairy is cheap, and store brands everywhere else.

Mark the calendar: the US holiday falls on November 26, and the farm bureau's November survey will give a second data point before the big shop. If the forecast holds, hosts who plan around promotions rather than recipes will eat just as well for less. The turkey costs more this year. The strategy costs nothing.