Super El Nino Puts Millions of Children at Risk, UNICEF Warns

The United Nations children's agency issued a stark warning on October 6, 2026: an estimated 190 million children across Asia and the Pacific live in areas expected to see unusually wet or dry conditions from El Nino between October and December of this year, the largest number of any region on Earth. According to UNICEF, the 2026-2027 El Nino is forecast to become one of the strongest ever recorded, raising the odds of severe droughts, flooding, and other extreme weather that threaten children's health, nutrition, education, and safety.

It is a natural climate pattern driven by unusually warm water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and it scrambles weather around the world every few years. This one looks like a monster. As reported by Fast Company, NOAA said there is a 75 percent chance the October-December 2026 event will exceed the strength of every El Nino on record going back to 1950. Weekly sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have hit a threshold of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, effectively qualifying the phenomenon for "super" status.

El Nino Brings Drought to Pacific Islands, Floods to Sri Lanka

The risks are not evenly spread, and that is what makes El Nino so hard to prepare for. According to UNICEF, Fiji, Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Papua New Guinea, and the Philippines are among the countries expected to face drier conditions linked to the phenomenon, raising the prospect of agricultural drought, water scarcity, displacement, and acute malnutrition. Sri Lanka, by contrast, is expected to see wetter-than-average conditions.

In conflict-affected places such as Afghanistan, the coming season could pile onto existing hunger, malnutrition, and displacement, cutting off access to services that are already stretched thin. And across Asia and the Pacific, families are already reeling: in Nepal and Pakistan, recent floods, storms, and extreme heat have displaced families, wrecked infrastructure, and damaged crops, while rising food and living costs linked to the Middle East crisis have left vulnerable households with almost nothing in reserve.

The El Nino Timeline: Three Warnings in Five Weeks

This is the third region-level alarm UNICEF has sounded in just over a month. On September 1, the agency warned that more than 162 million children, over two-thirds of all children in Eastern and Southern Africa, were exposed to the strengthening phenomenon. On September 30, it flagged at least 25.8 million children across Latin America and the Caribbean. The October 6 Asia-Pacific warning completes a grim global picture, and it covers the largest child population of any region.

Forecasts like these are meant to buy time, but the world is not spending it. According to ReliefWeb, less than one percent of international humanitarian assistance is currently available for anticipatory action, even though early preparation is widely seen as the key to saving lives and reducing future needs. UNICEF says it urgently needs 173 million dollars to reach children and families with anticipatory and life-saving help across its priority countries, and its own research shows every dollar invested in disaster risk reduction can save up to fifteen dollars in recovery costs.

Why This El Nino Season Matters for Everyone

The warning lands on children who have barely had a chance to recover. "For many families, there has barely been time to recover from one shock before facing another," said Sanjay Wijesekera, UNICEF Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific. When crops fail, food prices climb, and livelihoods break down, the consequences land on children fast: the meals they eat, whether they can stay in school, and whether their families can afford health care and other essentials.

The risks also run deeper than hunger and floods. UNICEF notes that mounting pressures can push children out of school and into child labor, child marriage, violence, and exploitation, with girls hit hardest through interrupted schooling, extra care responsibilities, and heightened protection risks. That is why the agency is pressing governments and donors to strengthen early-warning systems, pre-position critical supplies, protect essential services, and expand social safety nets before conditions peak.

The good news, if there is any, is that this crisis is predictable and preventable. "We know this threat is coming, and we still have an opportunity to act," Wijesekera said. El Nino typically strengthens in the months ahead, and the choices made now will decide whether millions of children ride out the season with schools and clinics intact, or pay the price for a warning the world saw coming. For more on the forecast behind this warning, read our earlier story on the record-breaking forecast, and follow our Climate Emergency coverage for what happens next.