Senate midterm polls: Democrats ahead in Texas, Alaska races

A new batch of Senate midterm polls released Saturday by the Siena Research Institute carried bad news for Republicans: Democrats are ahead or tied in all five of the red-state races surveyed, one month out from the midterms. The New York Times/Siena College surveys, conducted Sept. 21 through Oct. 1 among 2,946 likely voters, covered Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas. Each of those states backed President Donald Trump by 11 to 16 points in 2024, which is what makes the numbers so striking. Democrats now lead in three of the races and are even or within a point in the other two.

In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 51 to 45, a six-point edge just outside the poll's 4.5-point margin of error. The result roughly doubles Talarico's lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average, and a Marist College survey last week found the same six-point margin. Trump's own standing in the state looks weak: 40 percent approve of his job performance while 57 percent disapprove. The poll arrived days after a recording surfaced of Paxton telling conservative donors that "everybody's numbers dropped" after the party's much-hyped midterm convention in Dallas, where Trump addressed the crowd.

In Alaska, the Senate midterm polls show former Rep. Mary Peltola leading incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan 50 to 43, a seven-point advantage that also clears the margin of error. Peltola previously served as Alaska's at-large House member and has run ahead of the national party brand in the state before. A Democratic pickup in Alaska would be a major prize: the party needs a net gain of four Republican-held seats to take Senate control, and Alaska was not on most analysts' lists at the start of the cycle.

Ohio, Kansas and Iowa are all effectively coin flips. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Sen. Jon Husted 49 to 46 in Ohio, with the results released hours before Trump was scheduled to campaign in the state for Husted, who was appointed to the seat left open when JD Vance became vice president. In Kansas, Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton is dead even with Sen. Roger Marshall at forty-five percent apiece; Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator in more than ninety years. Iowa shows Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson ahead of Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek 48 to 47, notable in a state where Democrats have not won a Senate race in 18 years.

Why the Senate map suddenly matters

For most of the year, the consensus held that Democrats' realistic midterm target was the House, and earlier polling already showed the party gaining ground. That consensus is shifting. Across the five states, roughly half of voters say they want a candidate who would check Trump, while about a quarter want one who supports him. Trump's approval across the five states sits between 38 and 41 percent, with disapproval running 55 to 60 percent. The Washington Examiner reports that his approval is down five points since the Times' previous surveys in four of the states in June. And in all five states, voters were more likely to say the Democratic candidate "has good character" than to say the same of the Republican; in four of them, voters more often described the Republican as "too far to the right," according to the same report. Taken together, the Senate midterm polls suggest the competitive map is far wider than either party expected a year ago.

What voters say is driving it

The economy and the cost of living are the top issues, and Democrats hold a twenty-four-point advantage among independents, along with a clear edge as the party more trusted on living costs. Republicans keep a three-point edge on immigration. The same Texas survey also has Democrat Gina Hinojosa edging Gov. Greg Abbott in the governor's race, a sign that the state's problems run deeper than one candidate. A Fox News survey in late September also found Talarico ahead, though by a slimmer margin. The Senate midterm polls, detailed in USA Today, put Democrats ahead or tied in every race surveyed. Both parties now face four weeks of campaigning in states neither expected to be competitive, and if the numbers hold, November could redraw a Senate map that looked settled a year ago.