New Midterm Polls Hand Democrats an Edge Over Trump

Five weeks out from the November 2026 midterms, the latest wave of midterm polls is moving in Democrats' favor. A Harvard CAPS/Harris survey released September 30, 2026 found Democrats leading Republicans by two points among likely midterm voters — a four-point swing from August, when likely voters leaned the other way.

The same survey puts President Donald Trump's approval at 42 percent, a new low for the monthly poll, and finds more than half of voters saying the country is on the wrong track. The poll was conducted online with 2,200 registered voters between September 26 and 28, according to the release published by Stagwell, the research firm's parent company.

Trump's strongest issue ratings are on immigration and fighting crime in American cities, where he earns approval in the high forties. But on the issue voters care about most, he is underwater: only about a third of voters approve of his handling of inflation, which 45 percent name as their top personal concern.

Why the likely-voter screen matters in these midterm polls

The headline number tells only half the story. Among all registered voters, the generic midterm ballot is tied at 50-50, and 16 percent of voters — including nearly a quarter of independents — remain undecided. The Democratic advantage appears only when the poll narrows to voters considered most likely to turn out, and 53 percent of independents lean toward Democrats.

That screen flipped dramatically. In the August 2026 edition of the same poll, likely voters favored Republicans by two points; the September swing represents a four-point move toward Democrats in a single month. Trump's approval also ticked down two points over that stretch, and the share of voters saying the country is on the wrong track rose four points to 56 percent.

Mark Penn, the poll's co-director, told the press release that voters remain fixated on household costs. "Voters are still concerned with inflation and the economy, and that's number one on their minds going into this election," Penn said. He added that voters are "generally supportive of Trump's foreign policy" but "want to see an end to tariffs."

What the next five weeks look like

Trump is not sitting still. On September 29, 2026, he announced a 32-day campaign travel schedule ahead of the midterms, with stops in Texas and Ohio this week, according to reporting by Reuters. "You love me, and I love them," he told reporters outside the White House, flanked by House Speaker Mike Johnson.

Down-ballot races show the same currents. A Marist poll released this week found former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown leading incumbent Republican Jon Husted 51 to 43 percent in Ohio's Senate race, one of the contests that will decide Senate control. Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report says control of the chamber is now "a true coin flip."

The poll also probed issues that rarely crack midterm polls. Nearly three in four voters said they would back a bipartisan government agency to regulate artificial intelligence, and two-thirds want AI development slowed over safety concerns, according to the same survey. Looking ahead to 2028, Vice President J.D. Vance and former Vice President Kamala Harris top their parties' early preference lists, though both sit underwater on net favorability.

For voters, the stakes are familiar: control of the House and Senate would shape the final two years of Trump's term. And conviction is high — half of voters say their midterm vote is already decided, and 83 percent call the election important. One notable policy split: more than four in five voters back Trump's push to lower prescription drug prices and 77 percent support deporting immigrants who committed crimes, but only 40 percent support a universal 15 percent import tariff.

A caution is warranted: polls vary. The Harvard/Harris survey is one data point in a crowded field, and other national surveys have shown Trump both higher and lower. What the September reading establishes is direction — inflation dominates, the likely-voter screen is breaking toward Democrats, and both parties have five weeks to change it. The full poll results are available through the Stagwell press release, and Reuters has the details of Trump's campaign tour announcement.

More from this beat: Politics and The Feed.