Ohio Senate race poll: Brown, Husted deadlocked

A new Suffolk University/USA TODAY Ohio Network survey has Sherrod Brown and Jon Husted locked in a close race for Ohio's Senate seat less than a week before Election Day. The Ohio Senate race poll, released Wednesday, puts Brown at 47 percent and Husted at 44 percent, a gap inside the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. In a state that has swung between parties in recent cycles, the numbers describe a contest with no clear leader heading into the final days.

The survey covered likely voters across Ohio. Libertarian Bill Redpath and independent Greg Levy, a socialist, each drew 1.6 percent of those surveyed, and their combined support could matter in a race this tight. Outside groups are already working that margin. A Republican-backed organization spent more than $2.2 million to boost Levy, according to Federal Election Commission filings, while Principled Patriots PAC, which commission records link to the Democratic nonprofit Rapid Resist Action, sent text messages promoting Redpath over Husted, according to a screenshot obtained by the USA TODAY Ohio Network Statehouse Bureau. Levy's campaign called the effort highly undemocratic, the Dispatch reported.

Independents could decide it

Brown's edge comes largely from independent voters. He leads Husted among independents by 52 percent to 24 percent, the poll found. David Paleologos, director of Suffolk's Political Research Center, said independents will determine the outcome in Ohio, and that third-party votes among independents would make closing the gap harder for Husted. "In a general election anywhere, especially in Ohio, it's really the independents who are going to determine the outcome," Paleologos said. "But if a piece of those independents are voting third party, it's going to be harder and harder to win those over."

The seat carries weight beyond Ohio. The winner serves the remaining two years of Vice President JD Vance's Senate term and could help decide which party controls the chamber. Husted was appointed to serve the remainder of Vance's term after Vance left the Senate, according to USA TODAY's rundown of the races to watch, and Brown, a former senator, is trying to take the seat back. The campaign could also set new records for ad spending in the state, a sign of how much national attention the race is drawing in the closing days. The November vote is part of midterm elections that will determine control of the closely divided Congress, and Ohio is one of the states both parties are watching most closely as Election Day approaches.

A crowded final stretch

Both parties are sending their biggest names into Ohio for the close. Former President Barack Obama headlined a Cleveland rally for Brown and gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton, while President Donald Trump was scheduled to make his third trip to Ohio the same day the poll came out. The Senate race had taken a back seat in recent days to the governor's contest after Republican Vivek Ramaswamy aired an ad featuring Acton's estranged mother, a spot that drew wide attention and shifted the conversation away from the Senate matchup.

Voters interviewed by the Dispatch described the choice in personal terms. Brenda Dorst, 60, of southeast Ohio, said she used to vote Democratic but now plans to back Husted, saying the party has moved too far left for her. Hunter Morris, 22, of Alliance, said Brown is not progressive enough on some issues for his taste, but called Husted a generic conservative who would keep backing Trump's agenda, and said Brown represents a sense of normalcy he trusts. Their answers capture a race where party loyalty, habit, and frustration are pulling voters in different directions.

Election Day is Nov. 3, and the campaigns are spending the closing days trying to turn out their own voters while chasing the independents who have not yet settled on a candidate. With the margin this narrow, the Ohio Senate race poll suggests small shifts among those voters, or among supporters of the minor candidates, could decide who goes to Washington. Early voting is already open in some states, including New Jersey, as the campaigns make their closing arguments. The full poll results are available from the Columbus Dispatch, which reported the survey in partnership with the USA TODAY Ohio Network.