Ten Billion in Midterm Ad Spending Won't Lower Grocery Bills

Campaign spending in the 2026 midterms crossed $10 billion this week, and that figure covers advertising alone. Midterm ad spending at this scale has no precedent: according to AdImpact, the ad-tracking firm NPR partners with, the money went to television, cable, digital, satellite, and radio spots, putting this cycle on pace to outspend every election cycle on record, presidential years included. NPR senior political editor Domenico Montanaro, reporting on the milestone, noted the awkward timing. Voters keep naming the same top concern, the cost of living, while the ad bill keeps climbing.

The money pools in a few races. The Texas Senate contest has burned through more than half a billion dollars in ads, Ohio's Senate race has topped $460 million, and Maine's sits near $260 million, according to figures reported by NPR Illinois. The priciest House race in the country is not in California or New York. It is Michigan's 7th congressional district, where nearly $60 million in ads has flooded one House seat, with contests in Iowa and Florida close behind at just under $50 million apiece. Midterm ad spending concentrates where control of Congress gets decided, and this year's map is unusually expensive.

Where the money comes from

The supply side tells its own story. Since the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision in 2010 lifted limits on donations to super PACs, wealthy donors have steered hundreds of millions of dollars up and down the ballot. Elon Musk has spent more than $150 million on the Texas Senate race alone, what Montanaro called pocket change for Musk and a fortune for anyone else, and $276 million to Republican groups since July. George Soros has given more than $100 million to Democratic groups this cycle. The donors get influence and access. The voters get the commercials.

Who the ads are actually for

Meanwhile the audience for all that advertising is busy with the bills the ads promise to fix. Voters tell pollsters and reporters that the economy and the cost of living top their list of concerns. Groceries cost roughly a third more than they did in 2019. Inflation has climbed, and gas prices have spiked since the start of the Iran war. A Fox News poll released this week put the president's approval rating at 36 percent, with his rating on inflation at 22 percent, according to Axios. The contrast is hard to miss: the people being courted with ten billion dollars in commercials are the same people counting change at the checkout line.

Even the biggest spenders sound unsure the money works. Reuters reported this week that President Trump has pressed Republican aides over why polling in pivotal races has not improved despite roughly $200 million in spending by MAGA Inc., and why the redistricting push he championed has failed to deliver clear gains. Montanaro offered a sports analogy for the skepticism: as the Los Angeles Dodgers might remind everyone this week, spending the most money does not guarantee victory. The skeptical read is that the outlay is less about persuading undecided voters than about buying access, and the people buying it already have plenty.

Today's No Kings protests carry a related message. Organizers say the events are about nonpartisan voter participation, being in community with each other, and making sure every eligible voter has a plan and knows the options. The framing is deliberate: the counterweight to the midterm ad spending blitz is voters showing up informed rather than outspent. Whether that message cuts through the noise is the open question of the next two weeks.

There is an older, cheaper idea gathering dust: spend less than your opponent and say so out loud. NPR Illinois floated it this week, suggesting a candidate could win support by vowing to out-frugality the other side. Nobody has tried it at scale, and the consultants who live off ad money would hate it. But with the midterms a little over two weeks away and midterm ad spending still climbing, the experiment would at least answer the question the ten-billion-dollar ad pile keeps dodging: what does any of this actually buy?