Israel Election Deadlock: Netanyahu and Eisenkot Both Short

The Israel election deadlock is the story the world is watching today: Israelis voted on October 27, and neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, has a clear path to the sixty-one seats needed to govern. Counting is still going, but the early picture is a knife-edge split that could drag on for weeks.

What the count shows so far

According to The Guardian, Netanyahu has lost his governing majority, and projections showed a surge for Palestinian parties in a contest with the highest turnout since 1999, at seventy-seven point seven percent. Both Jewish blocs looked certain to fall short of sixty-one seats in the one hundred twenty-seat Knesset once seventy percent of ballots were counted.

The Times of Israel reported the Likud-led bloc leading the count with fifty-four seats, short of a majority. Eisenkot's bloc sat near forty-nine, with the Arab parties at seventeen, which would put the whole anti-Netanyahu camp at sixty-six on paper. Likud is still the largest single party with twenty-seven seats.

Exit polls told different stories

Election night polls could not agree. According to Al Jazeera, Kan eleven and Channel thirteen put both blocs level at fifty-one seats each. Channel twelve gave Netanyahu fifty-two to Eisenkot's forty-nine, and Channel fifteen was the most generous to the incumbent at fifty-five.

As real votes came in, early hopes of an Eisenkot lead faded. Ballots from deployed soldiers and other absentee voters are counted last, and they tend to lean right, though The Guardian notes that many older, more moderate reservists are now on active duty, which could scramble that old pattern.

The Arab parties hold the keys

The big twist for anyone following along is the strength of Ra'am and the Joint List. Exit polls put their combined support between sixteen and nineteen seats, a record result. That is enough to tip the balance, but the politics are tough. Netanyahu has called a coalition with Arab parties "shameful," and top figures in the Jewish opposition have also ruled it out.

Not everyone in the opposition agrees. Democrats leader Yair Golan urged Eisenkot to talk to both parties, saying Israelis can no longer accept a distinction between Jewish and Arab votes. Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen said his party "can't be ignored under any political scenario" and is ready to help push Netanyahu out.

How the blocs line up

Netanyahu's bloc spans Likud, the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, and the far-right Religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smotrich, and Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir. Eisenkot's side includes his Yashar party, the Together list tied to Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu, and Golan's Democrats.

Some Netanyahu allies are floating a broad unity government with Eisenkot and other centrists, according to The New York Times live coverage. Both leaders are also expected to try to lure defectors from the other camp, which means the next few weeks will be pure horse-trading.

What happens next

Official results are due on November fourth. After that, Israel's president, Isaac Herzog, picks the lawmaker most likely to build a majority. That person gets twenty-eight days to form a government, with a possible extension of up to fourteen days, per Al Jazeera. If they fail, the chance passes to a rival, and if nobody succeeds, Israelis could be sent back to the polls.

That fear is real: Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022. Netanyahu, seventy-seven, is Israel's longest-serving prime minister and stays on as caretaker while talks run. He is also on trial on corruption charges, which he denies.

Why it matters beyond Israel

This was the first national vote since the October 2023 Hamas attack, and it came with Israel facing war in Gaza, a fight with Hezbollah and a conflict with Iran. Donald Trump claimed his endorsement helped Netanyahu, according to The Guardian. Whoever ends up with the mandate will shape policy on all those fronts. For more on global politics, see our world coverage and politics page.

For now the Israel election deadlock means one thing: patience. Final seats could still shift as soldiers' votes land, and the real fight, the coalition math, has barely started.