Brazil Runoff Day: Lula and Bolsonaro Tied at the Wire

The Brazil runoff is finally here, and the country's presidential race is so tight that neither side can claim a clear lead. Voters head to the polls on Sunday to choose between leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Nearly one hundred fifty-nine million Brazilians are eligible to vote, according to The Guardian.

A Race That Refuses to Break

The Brazil runoff follows a first round on the fourth of October in which Flávio Bolsonaro edged ahead of Lula, forty-seven percent to forty-five percent. Neither man crossed the line needed to win outright, so the two are facing off again. The final polls suggest almost nothing has settled since.

A new CNT/MDA survey showed Bolsonaro at forty-six point three percent and Lula at forty-five percent, according to Reuters. The poll spoke to two thousand thirty-two people between the twenty-first and twenty-third of October, with a margin of error of two point two percentage points. That means the gap sits well inside the noise.

The week before, the same type of poll had Bolsonaro at forty-six point eight percent and Lula at forty-five point nine percent. So Lula has trimmed a sliver of ground, but nobody can call it a trend. Most analysts still treat Bolsonaro as the slight favourite, the Guardian reports, even as Lula appears to have regained some initiative in recent days.

Copacabana Turns Red

On Saturday, the final day of campaigning, supporters of the president flooded Rio's most famous beach. Rio's City Hall put the Copacabana crowd at about one point one million people, according to The Guardian. Lula then headed to an even larger rally on Avenida Paulista in São Paulo, the country's biggest city.

Many of the people in red were teenagers and students. A ten-million-member WhatsApp group nicknamed "Lula's Army" formed after the first round, built to push people to knock on doors and talk to doubtful voters. One retired teacher in the crowd called it a fight for democracy rather than a normal election.

Lula is eighty and first won the presidency in 2002. A victory on Sunday would give him a fourth non-consecutive term. It would also be a historic comeback, because no first-round runner-up has bounced back to win since democracy returned to Brazil in the nineteen eighties.

Bolsonaro's Pitch and the Scandals

Flávio Bolsonaro has sold himself as the candidate who will tackle violent crime with an iron fist. His own rallies drew big crowds too, including in Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais. That state matters because no candidate has ever won Brazil's presidency without carrying it, and Bolsonaro led there by just under five percent in round one.

His campaign has also been dogged by controversy. The magazine Piauí claimed he attended a boat party during the worst of the pandemic where sex workers and vaccine lobbyists were present, the Guardian reports. The final televised debate on Friday night on Globo turned personal and sharp, with both men trading accusations of lying.

Behind it all sits his father's legacy. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a twenty-seven-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after he lost the 2022 election to Lula. Many Brazilian democrats fear he could be freed if his son wins, and Brazilian press reports suggest some of his fellow plotters could land top military and police jobs.

The Amazon Is Quietly on the Ballot

Strangely, neither candidate has made the rainforest a headline issue. Climate scientists argue the winner could still decide whether, and how soon, the Amazon reaches a tipping point, according to The Associated Press. The world's largest rainforest is a huge carbon store, and Brazil hosted global climate talks only recently.

That makes the Brazil runoff a big deal far beyond Brazil. Lula has a record of cutting deforestation and promoting forest protection, while Bolsonaro has committed only to stopping illegal clearing. The Brazil runoff stakes are especially high this year, with a strong El Niño bringing fire and flood risks across the region.

What to Watch on Sunday

Polls close in the evening, and Brazil counts votes quickly, so a result could arrive within hours if the margin is wide enough. Given the polling, a long night is possible for the Brazil runoff. Rain and storms are forecast across parts of the south and southeast, which could shape turnout in some areas, according to Agência Brasil.

Six governor races are also heading to runoffs, and the new Congress takes office in February. Whoever wins the presidency will take over in January. For young voters watching from abroad, this is one of the most closely followed elections of the year. For more global coverage, see the world news page and the politics section.