August JOLTS Report: Job Openings Fell, Layoffs Near Record Low

The August JOLTS report shows U.S. job openings fell by 256,000 in August to 7.079 million, but layoffs stayed near historic lows — painting a picture of a labor market that is neither booming nor breaking, just oddly frozen, according to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, which released the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday.

The 7.079 million openings fell short of the 7.225 million economists polled by Reuters had forecast, the August JOLTS report showed, and the job openings rate slipped to 4.3 percent from 4.4 percent in July. At the same time, hiring actually ticked up 46,000 to 5.192 million, and layoffs and discharges dropped by 61,000 to 1.641 million, with the layoff rate dipping to 1.0 percent from 1.1 percent.

That combination — fewer openings, but hardly anyone getting fired — is the defining weirdness of the current economy. Employers are reluctant to ramp up hiring, yet they are holding onto the workers they have. Economists blamed uncertainty from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which has boosted energy prices and driven up inflation, for freezing hiring plans.

Perhaps the most telling number is the quits rate: the share of employees quitting their jobs held at 1.9 percent, which ties an 11-year low outside the height of the Covid crisis. When workers stop quitting voluntarily, it usually means they do not feel confident they can find something better — which in turn limits pay raises as employers face less competition for talent.

What the numbers say about the road ahead

The August JOLTS report arrives days before the September employment report, due Friday, October 2. A Reuters survey of economists expects nonfarm payrolls to have advanced by about 90,000 in September, reported by Reuters, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1 percent. August's payroll gain of 162,000 jobs was the strongest in five months, so economists are watching to see whether that momentum held.

Consumer confidence, meanwhile, is flashing red: the Conference Board index tumbled 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, a 12-year low, with the gap between consumers who say jobs are plentiful and those who say jobs are hard to get narrowing to a post-pandemic low of 1.7 percent.

All of this feeds into the Federal Reserve's next move. The central bank raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points on September 16 to the 3.75–4.00 percent range — the first hike in three years — and flagged further increases. Financial markets whipsawed this week on the odds of a back-to-back hike at the October 28 meeting: CME's FedWatch tool showed a roughly 70 percent chance on Monday, falling to about 45 percent by Wednesday after New York Fed President John Williams suggested no need to rush further increases.

Bond markets are not waiting around. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high of 5.293 percent on Tuesday, and the 30-year reached a 24-year high of 5.621 percent, before retreating slightly, reported by Investor's Business Daily. Those yields matter because they ripple into mortgages, car loans, and credit cards — the borrowing costs that shape real life far more than any single jobs report.

What it means if you're starting out

If you are in your twenties and job hunting, the August JOLTS report sends a mixed signal. The good news: companies are not laying people off en masse, so the floor under employment is solid. The bad news: with openings falling and the quits rate at rock bottom, landing a new role — especially a first role or a career switch — is getting harder, and employers have less pressure to raise starting pay.

The pattern favors insiders over newcomers: people with jobs are keeping them, while people trying to get in face a thinner pipeline of openings. For Gen Z graduates and early-career workers, that makes the boring advice suddenly valuable — referrals, internships that convert, and applying early and widely matter more in a frozen market than in a hot one.

There is also a macro warning embedded in the August JOLTS report. Diesel prices have surged to record highs, and economists warn that elevated energy costs and 5-percent-plus Treasury yields could undercut growth heading into 2027. The August JOLTS report itself has been plagued by a low response rate, which has fallen considerably since before the pandemic — so take every decimal point with a grain of salt.

The August JOLTS report will be followed by Friday's payrolls report — the next big test. If job growth holds up near expectations, the Fed has room to keep fighting inflation with more hikes. If it disappoints, the odds of another October increase fade — and so does some of the pressure on borrowing costs. Either way, the era of easy job-hopping is over for now. Read Reuters' full breakdown of the data at Reuters.

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