Rebeca Grynspan has retaken the lead in the UN secretary-general race after the Security Council's third secret straw poll on Friday, September 18. The former Costa Rican vice president and current head of the UN trade agency UNCTAD secured nine "encourage" votes, five "discourage" votes and one "no opinion" vote, according to diplomats and sources close to the process who spoke to Reuters.

Just one ballot behind came Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Guyana's ambassador to the United Nations, with eight votes in favor, six against and one "no opinion." The two women also finished first and second in the opening poll on July 30, though Rodrigues-Birkett briefly grabbed the top spot in the second round on August 21, when Grynspan slipped into a tie for second, according to the Seoul Economic Daily. With the margins this tight, the race to run the United Nations remains wide open.

Eight candidates, one very difficult job

Eight people are competing to succeed Antonio Guterres, who steps down at the end of the year after two five-year terms. His successor takes office on January 1, 2027, and will inherit an organization under heavy strain: funding shortfalls, great-power rivalries inside the Council itself, and a growing list of crises from Ukraine to the Congo.

Five of the eight candidates are women, which means the UN secretary-general race could still produce the first female head of the United Nations since its founding in 1945. Alongside Grynspan, 70, and Rodrigues-Birkett, 52, the women in the running are Michelle Bachelet, the former president of Chile; Maria Fernanda Espinosa, the former foreign minister of Ecuador; and Ivonne A-Baki, the former Ecuadorian ambassador to the United States. The remaining candidates are Olara Otunnu, the former Ugandan foreign minister; Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency; and Macky Sall, the former president of Senegal.

Friday's numbers: tight at the top, messy below

The full tally from the September 18 vote shows how fragmented the Council is. Otunnu jumped to third place with five encourage, seven discourage and three no opinion votes, up from fifth place in July. Grossi, the high-profile IAEA chief, drew five encourage, eight discourage and two no opinion. Sall took five encourage, nine discourage and one no opinion. Espinosa recorded three encourage, six discourage and six no opinion, while A-Baki drew zero encourage, ten discourage and five no opinion. Bachelet, once seen as a heavyweight, landed at one encourage, eleven discourage and three no opinion.

None of those numbers is enough to win. In these straw polls, Council members mark secret ballots as "encourage," "discourage" or "no opinion," and a formal recommendation requires at least nine favorable votes with no objection from any of the five veto-holding permanent members: the United States, China, Russia, France and Britain. Once the Council agrees, the 193-member General Assembly votes on the nominee, a step that has long been treated as a rubber stamp.

Why the result could shake up the race

Richard Gowan, who leads the International Crisis Group's work on global institutions, said the numbers suggest neither Grynspan nor Rodrigues-Birkett is close to a decisive breakthrough, and that "it is time for some of the weaker candidates to bow out of the race." At the same time, Gowan said the results could tempt people who have been waiting on the sidelines to jump in. It is still possible for new candidates to enter the UN secretary-general race, and the vote came just ahead of the annual gathering of world leaders at the United Nations in New York next week, when backroom lobbying traditionally intensifies.

Grossi's trajectory illustrates how fast fortunes shift. The Argentine nuclear watchdog chief published a reformist platform in The Economist calling for the UN to "do less, better," but his standing slipped amid growing negative votes and public criticism from Kremlin-linked outlets over his IAEA role, according to Particle News. Otunnu, meanwhile, is climbing: his tally rose from 2-5-8 in July to 5-5-5 in August and now 5-7-3, moving him from fifth to third place.

History says patience is required

The Council is in no rush by historical standards. When Guterres was selected in 2016, the UN secretary-general race ran through six straw polls before members settled on him. This year's contest has completed only three, so several more rounds are expected. Diplomats caution that straw polls are informal signals rather than binding votes, and that the real test is whether the veto powers can converge on a single name.

The leadership question also hangs over the UN's humanitarian work. Guterres recently named Luke Lindberg to lead the World Food Programme as donor funding shrinks, a move detailed in GenZ NewZ's coverage of the appointment. Whoever wins the UN secretary-general race will set the tone for agencies like it at a moment of shrinking budgets and rising need.

For now, the UN secretary-general race has a frontrunner but no winner. Grynspan's nine votes are still one short of the nine needed for a recommendation, and even a formal recommendation can fall apart if any permanent member objects. With Guterres out on December 31 and the General Assembly session in full swing, the coming weeks will show whether this is a two-woman contest or whether a late entry scrambles the board. More global developments are covered on the The World page.