Serbia Election: Students Challenge Vucic's Grip on Power

The Serbia election is happening right now, and it is shaping up as the biggest test of Aleksandar Vucic's power in more than a decade. Voters across the Balkan country lined up at polling stations on Sunday, with a student-born movement trying to unseat the strongman who has dominated Serbian politics for years.

Long lines and a turnout surge

Voting opened at seven in the morning local time and closes at eight in the evening, with first indications of results expected about two hours later, according to Al Jazeera. Hundreds of people queued in Belgrade in the early hours, and long lines were also reported in Novi Sad, the city where the protest wave began.

Turnout is running well ahead of the last parliamentary vote. By one in the afternoon, forty-one point one percent of eligible voters had cast ballots, up from twenty-six point six percent at the same stage in December 2023, according to Deutsche Welle, citing the independent monitor CRTA. High turnout is widely seen as the student side's best hope, because the ruling party keeps a disciplined core of loyal voters.

How a collapsed roof lit the fuse

The story behind this Serbia election starts in November 2024, when a concrete canopy collapsed at the freshly renovated railway station in Novi Sad. Sixteen people died. The disaster was widely blamed on corruption and sloppy construction, and the government rejected those accusations.

University students answered with blockades and marches. What began as a demand for accountability grew into the country's largest social movement since the fall of Slobodan Milosevic in 2000, pulling in teachers, farmers and many others, DW reports. Roughly one hundred fifty thousand people filled central Belgrade for the final student rally on Thursday, according to Al Jazeera.

Students versus the strongman

On paper, eighteen lists are competing for seats in the two hundred fifty member parliament. In practice, the vote is a referendum on Vucic, whose Serbian Progressive Party has dominated politics since winning in 2012. He resigned as president in September to run for prime minister, because the constitution bars a third presidential term.

The challenger is the Students' List, a leaderless-style slate of two hundred fifty mostly unfamiliar candidates, including professors, actors and farmers. It is headed by cardiologist Ilija Srdanovic, who is neither the movement's leader nor its designated prime ministerial pick, according to DW. The campaign focuses on ending graft, improving education and rebuilding institutions, not on foreign policy.

Political researcher Jelena Vasiljevic told Al Jazeera that young people, long seen as the country's most disengaged group, have become the core of its biggest mobilisation in decades. She said turnout will be decisive, since the students must unite opposition voters and also bring in people who rarely vote.

What the polls and promises say

Polling points to a tight contest. An Ipsos survey published Thursday put the ruling party at forty-seven percent and the students at forty percent, though other polls have shown the students ahead, Al Jazeera notes. The Guardian's live coverage adds that the Ipsos survey was declared to be paid for by Vucic's list, so that number deserves a grain of salt.

Vucic is pitching higher pensions, bigger public sector salaries, healthcare investment and subsidies for young couples. Many voters credit him with pulling Serbia out of economic obscurity. He has also balanced ties between China, a major investor, and Russia, the main supplier of natural gas, while saying the door to the European Union stays open.

He has accused the students of being funded by foreign agents in neighbouring countries, a charge the students deny. Rights groups say repression has grown since the canopy collapse, and Vucic and his party deny accusations of repression, corruption and spying on opponents.

Why the rest of Europe is watching

Serbia is a candidate for European Union membership, but its progress has stalled over concerns about the judiciary, the rule of law and corruption. Brussels has grown frustrated with the lack of reform, and the outcome could reset that relationship.

There is a wider echo too. A Vucic loss would recall the defeat of Hungary's Viktor Orban in April, when Peter Magyar won, a result that stunned many observers. Student-led anger is also rising elsewhere in the region, including in Albania, where protests against Prime Minister Edi Rama keep growing. For more on movements shaking governments, browse the world coverage on this site.

Whatever the final count shows, the Serbia election has already changed the political mood in Belgrade. A generation that was told to stay out of politics showed up in huge numbers, and the next few hours will reveal whether that energy turns into seats in parliament. Official results are expected overnight, so expect fast-moving updates through Monday.