Record El Niño: UN Warns of a Global 'Wrecking Ball'

A record El Niño is bearing down on the planet, and the United Nations is not being subtle about it. At a press briefing this week, officials described the Pacific heat surge as a "wrecking ball" that could slam into harvests, water supplies and cities from Latin America to Southeast Asia.

The warning came from the World Meteorological Organization and UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher. Here is what they said about the record El Niño, why scientists are rattled, and what it could mean for your winter.

A Record El Niño Beyond the Charts

According to The Weather Company, the WMO's latest seasonal outlook says tropical Pacific temperatures could run up to three point eight degrees Celsius above average between November and January. Forecasters use that three-month average to rate an El Niño, and they declare one when it tops half a degree.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said that level has never appeared in the agency's records. The strongest events on file only reached about three degrees above average. The WMO says the situation is "literally off the monitoring charts" used for the past four decades.

The record El Niño should peak toward the end of the year, Saulo said, but the impacts will linger well beyond it. The agency flagged the trend earlier too, in its WMO update on the strengthening event. Meanwhile, the US weather agency NOAA measures things with a slightly different yardstick and still expects the event to peak at or above two and a half degrees above average.

Why Tom Fletcher Called It a Wrecking Ball

Fletcher did not hold back on the record El Niño. "This El Niño is the behemoth, it is a wrecking ball," he said, according to The Philippine Star. He warned it will tear through Latin America, Eastern and Southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific with extreme heat, droughts and floods.

Up to fifty million people could face increased hunger, Fletcher said. The African Development Bank estimates the cost to African countries at ten to twenty billion dollars and expects it to trim their economic output by one to two percent.

Fletcher says he has already released more than fifty million dollars to help eleven countries get ready. He called the next two weeks the critical window to act, and said governments that move on the forecasts now can soften the damage.

Where the Weather Gets Weird

The WMO's outlook is regional, so your local forecast can still surprise you. Still, the pattern is clear. Southwest US states should see more rain, while eastern North America and the northern Caribbean lean wetter than normal.

Central America, the southern Caribbean and the Amazon face a higher drought risk. East Africa should get wetter weather and flooding worries through December, while Southern Africa turns drier from November, which threatens crops and water supplies. Southeast Asia gets warmer, drier weather with more heat, wildfire and smoke risk.

The Philippines is already feeling it. Officials there say nine provinces are in meteorological drought, and the national weather service expects rainfall to drop by more than sixty percent across most of the country. The agriculture department reports crop losses in rice, corn and cassava, with hundreds of thousands of farmers affected.

Is 2026 About to Become the Hottest Year Ever?

Probably, yes. According to Bloomberg, research nonprofit Berkeley Earth now puts the odds that 2026 beats the 2024 record at ninety-six percent. In January, it gave that outcome a twelve percent shot. The surprise strength of El Niño flipped the math after its June onset.

NOAA is more cautious and sees 2026 finishing a close second behind 2024. Either way, atmospheric temperatures lag the ocean, so scientists are confident that 2027 will be even hotter than this year.

Berkeley Earth's Zeke Hausfather went even further, noting that the Pacific may not have produced conditions like these in a thousand years. "It may well be possible that this could be the strongest El Niño event in a thousand years," he said. September was the second-warmest on record, and fifty-three countries set national heat records.

What Happens Next

It helps to remember that El Niño is a natural climate pattern, not something humans created. Global warming, however, can make these events more intense, and the heat they add stacks on top of an already warming world. That is the uncomfortable math behind this record El Niño.

For food prices, expect pressure. Droughts and floods in major farming regions tend to push grocery bills up months later, which is why aid groups are pushing for early action rather than relief after the fact. Our climate coverage and science desk will keep tracking the record El Niño as the peak approaches in December.

The takeaway is simple. The forecast is bad, but it is also early, and early warnings only work if someone acts on them. The next two weeks, in Fletcher's words, are the moment that counts.