Record El Nino Could Run Off the Charts, UN Warns

A record El Nino is building, and the United Nations says it may be bigger than anything on file. At a Geneva press conference on Wednesday, World Meteorological Organization chief Celeste Saulo said the current event "could be unprecedented in strength, literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades," according to UN News.

The number that broke the chart

The WMO's latest seasonal update says sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, the epicentre of El Nino, may climb to three point eight degrees Celsius above average between November and January. That matters because half a degree above normal is enough for the WMO to declare an El Nino at all. Even the strongest past events only reached about three degrees, as The Weather Channel reports.

Saulo said that past events with anomalies near three degrees already caused very substantive disruption, and this one is beyond that limit. The event will peak toward the end of 2026, but the agency says its effects will be felt long afterward.

What a monster El Nino actually does

El Nino is a natural climate cycle that returns every two to seven years and usually lasts nine to twelve months. A very strong one scrambles normal temperature and rainfall patterns. According to the WMO, it can bring severe drought to some regions, heavy rain and flooding to others, and extra heat across large parts of the world.

The agency is already pointing to specific risks. Parts of East Africa face heavier rain and flooding during the October to December rainy season, while Southern Africa is expected to turn drier from November, which could hurt crops. Those are the kinds of shifts that can ripple into food prices far from where the weather hits.

Why the UN is calling it a humanitarian issue

The briefing was a joint one with UN aid chief Tom Fletcher, and the message was about acting before disaster strikes. Fletcher warned that the damage will not stay in the countries in the immediate path of this El Nino, according to Aaj News, which carried the AFP report.

The WMO and the UN humanitarian office issued a call for anticipatory action, meaning money and plans move before the flood or drought arrives. Saulo argued that extreme weather does not have to become a humanitarian emergency or cost lives, but she warned the window for preparing will not stay open forever.

For everyday people, the effects tend to show up as pricier groceries, strained water supplies and disrupted travel. Farmers who plan around predictable rainy seasons are the first to feel it, and aid agencies say communities already hit by conflict or poverty have the least room to absorb another shock. That is the core of the UN's argument for moving money early.

The climate backdrop

The warning lands in a year when the oceans are already running hot. Climate monitors say equatorial Pacific subsurface temperatures have soared far above average, and a separate UN environment report this week said the world is losing ground on emissions. A record El Nino on top of long-term warming makes new heat records far more likely.

El Nino itself is natural, but scientists say a warmer baseline can make its heat, floods and droughts hit harder. That is why this winter is being watched so closely by forecasters, farmers and aid groups alike.

What to watch next

Forecasters expect the event to weaken after its peak, with a return to neutral conditions possible by spring or early summer, according to NOAA's GFDL experimental forecasts. Until then, expect more weather headlines about floods, drought and heat. You can follow our wider climate emergency coverage for updates.

For young people, the practical takeaway is that this is a preview of a hotter world. If this record El Nino delivers what the UN fears, the response in the coming weeks will show whether governments can act early instead of waiting for the crisis to arrive.