Liberal lead narrows to 13 points in new poll

The federal Liberal lead over the Conservatives has narrowed for a third consecutive week, according to the latest Liaison Strategies national tracker released on October 26. The Liberals remain in front, followed by the Conservatives, with the New Democrats at 14 per cent among decided and leaning voters, according to the firm.

David Valentin, a principal at Liaison Strategies, said: "The Conservatives have added a point in each of the past three updates, taking them from 28% to 31%. Over the same period, the Liberals have slipped from 46% to 44%. Both changes have helped narrow the gap. The Conservatives are recovering, but they are still 13 points behind."

A steady Conservative climb

The gap stood at 18 points at the start of October and has tightened in each weekly update since, driven by small moves on both sides rather than a sudden swing. The pattern leaves the Liberals ahead but with momentum running in the Conservatives' favour, a combination that makes the next few weekly releases worth watching for both camps.

The climb follows a period in which Conservative support had fallen to its lowest level in Liaison tracking since March last year, according to the firm's earlier releases. The recovery since then has been gradual, a point a week at a time, rather than a single sharp move, which is why the trend across several updates matters more than any one week's figures.

Prime Minister Mark Carney's personal ratings did not move with the ballot numbers: 65 per cent of respondents approve of his performance, while 27 per cent disapprove, according to the tracker. Valentin said Canadians are giving the Liberals a little less support on the ballot while continuing to give the prime minister strong marks.

The headline figures cover decided and leaning voters, the group pollsters use for vote intention, while the remaining vote is split among the Bloc Québécois, the Greens and smaller parties. That framing matters when comparing surveys, since firms differ in how they treat respondents who have not yet made up their minds.

How the survey was done

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from October 11 to October 24, using interactive voice response technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling across landline and cellular phone networks, and the results were weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, and higher for subsamples.

This rolling survey combines two weeks of interviews, and consecutive weekly releases share one week of sampling, so week-to-week changes are gradual by design. Results may not add to 100% due to rounding. Liaison ranked first in accuracy in Ontario's 2025 election and second nationally in the most recent federal election, and is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

Interactive voice response means respondents answer recorded questions by keypad rather than speaking to a live interviewer, a method that lets firms reach large samples quickly across landline and cellular networks. Random digit dialling is designed to reach unlisted numbers as well as listed ones, and weighting adjusts the final sample so its age, gender and regional mix matches the population the survey aims to represent.

Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm, and Valentin has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss polling. The firm's membership in the Canadian Research Insights Council, the voice of the country's research and insights profession, is part of how it presents its standing in the industry.

Other recent national surveys have also put the Liberals ahead, according to Polling Canada's weekly model update, though the size of the lead varies by firm. In other political stories, students won a historic parliament victory in Serbia, and the United States cut embassy staffing at four Middle East posts. Liaison releases its tracker weekly, and the next update will show whether the Conservative recovery continues or the gap steadies. Further detail is available from Liaison Strategies and Polling Canada.