The Ballon d'Or race ends on Monday night, when football's most famous individual prize gets handed out at the London Palladium. The ceremony marks the seventieth edition of the award and the first time it has left France, according to Chronos Score, with Thierry Henry and Kate Scott hosting from eight in the evening, London time. Voting by journalists closed on September 28, so the winner is already decided and only the envelope is still sealed.

Harry Kane goes into the night as the favorite in the Ballon d'Or race. The Bayern Munich striker scored sixty-one goals in fifty-one games last season and added six more at the World Cup, according to Sportime, and bookmakers now list him ahead of the field. That is a sharp turn from early October, when Lamine Yamal led the betting, according to WinnebaNews. Judges weigh individual performance and decisiveness above team trophies, WinnebaNews reported, and that scoring record is the core of Kane's case.

Lamine Yamal is the challenger most likely to spoil the script in the Ballon d'Or race. The Barcelona winger finished second in last year's voting, according to The Football Faithful, and followed it with twenty-five goals and twenty assists in fifty-seven appearances as Barcelona kept the La Liga title, according to Sportime. He was named La Liga's Player of the Season and won the World Cup with Spain, The Football Faithful reported. No teenager has ever won the Ballon d'Or, and a Yamal victory on Monday would make him the youngest winner in the award's history.

Kylian Mbappe makes the Ballon d'Or race a three-way argument. The Real Madrid forward scored fifty-eight goals in sixty matches and finished as the top scorer in La Liga, the Champions League and the World Cup, according to Sportime. He also became the World Cup's all-time leading scorer with twenty-two goals at the tournament, TNT Sports reported. Mbappe has campaigned openly for the prize, telling TNT Sports that individual performance should count for more than team trophies and that he believes he can win it this year.

The field behind the favorites

Beyond the leading three, the thirty-man shortlist still holds plenty of intrigue for the Ballon d'Or race. Lionel Messi is on it at forty to one, according to The Football Faithful, after scoring eight times to carry Argentina to the World Cup final. Cristiano Ronaldo is absent for a fourth straight edition, according to Chronos Score. Defending champion Ousmane Dembele returns after winning in 2025, and Paris Saint-Germain supplies ten of the nominees, Chronos Score reported. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, the Champions League's Player of the Season with Paris Saint-Germain, sits far back in the betting at sixty-six to one, according to The Football Faithful.

The women's award gets handed out on the same night, but the recent history there is different. Aitana Bonmati, who won the last three women's awards, missed most of last season with a broken leg and is not nominated, according to Chronos Score. That absence leaves the women's prize open in a way the men's Ballon d'Or race is not.

How the winner gets picked

The award has been presented by France Football since 1956, when Stanley Matthews won the first edition, according to Businessday. London was picked as host city as a tribute to Matthews, Businessday reported. Each edition judges a single season rather than a calendar year, and for the 2026 award that window ran from August 3, 2025 to July 19, 2026, the date of the World Cup final, according to Chronos Score. France Football clarified that anything played after that window counts for nothing, The Sun Nigeria reported.

The night hands out more than the main prize. The Kopa Trophy goes to the best young player, the Yashin Trophy to the best goalkeeper, and there are awards for coaches and clubs, according to Chronos Score. The full ceremony streams live and free on DAZN in two hundred markets, according to DAZN, so the envelope opening will be hard to miss.

Debates like this one never really stop. According to our earlier reporting, the Vinicius clone theory turned into football's wildest rabbit hole, while the Nwaneri goalkeeping cameo had Gen Z football fans obsessed. The Ballon d'Or race settles its latest argument on Monday night, and whichever name comes out of the envelope, it will be a first Ballon d'Or for Kane, Yamal or Mbappe.

Sources: The Football Faithful, Yardbarker, TNT Sports.

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