Holiday Spending: Gen Z and Millennials Will Carry Half This Year

This holiday season's spending belongs to younger shoppers. According to Deloitte's Holiday Retail Survey, the average American household plans to spend $1,654 on the holidays, up four percent from $1,595 last year — and for the first time in the survey's four-decade history, Gen Z and millennials are expected to account for half of all holiday spending. The gains are coming almost entirely from younger consumers, who report better household finances than last year and plan to increase their holiday spending by double digits after pulling back the previous season.

The generational handoff is reshaping what gets bought and how. Three quarters of Gen Z shoppers plan to gift clothing and accessories, the survey found, and younger consumers are driving the largest gains in gifting overall. Self-gifting is part of the surge too: nearly half of Gen Z respondents plan to buy themselves something this season, compared with fewer than one in five baby boomers, and the average self-gift budget has climbed to $299 — a meaningful slice of total holiday spending on its own. That confidence is showing up elsewhere, too: Gen Z is also taking charge of old retirement accounts earlier than previous generations.

Personalization is the new price of admission

Younger shoppers want the experience tailored to them, and the numbers are stark. A third of Gen Z respondents plan to buy personalized or monogrammed gifts, versus 14 percent of Gen X and 5 percent of boomers. Among shoppers who find gift-hunting stressful, wish lists ease the process — and 79 percent of Gen Z say they help, the highest of any generation. Same-day delivery matters far more to younger buyers: 37 percent of Gen Z want it, compared with 13 percent of baby boomers.

"For the first time in our annual survey, Gen Z and millennials are expected to account for 50% of holiday spending, presenting a meaningful opportunity for retailers," said Natalie Martini, vice chair and US Retail and Consumer Products sector leader at Deloitte, in the firm's announcement. "Their preferences — including wish lists, faster delivery and personalized gifts — can help retailers make the shopping experience more relevant and convenient." The forecast echoes Reuters' earlier reporting that U.S. holiday retail sales would accelerate this year on rising disposable incomes.

Value hunting rules everything

For all the spending growth, this is not a splurge-without-a-plan season. Nearly four in ten shoppers qualify as what Deloitte calls "holiday value seekers," people who stack promotions, redeem rewards, and reach for private-label alternatives — yet those same bargain hunters expect to spend 12 percent more than everyone else. Planned spending on retail goods is up ten percent year over year to $988, while spending on holiday activities is expected to dip four percent to $666, as shoppers redirect money toward gifts they can wrap.

Holiday spending is also starting earlier. More than one in five respondents plan to start shopping earlier than last year, and 28 percent of budgets are expected to be exhausted by the end of October, the highest share in six years. October sales events now rival Cyber Monday for attention. Digital tools are compounding the effect: 39 percent of shoppers say generative AI is their primary tool for at least one holiday shopping task, though only 16 percent would let it actually complete a purchase. "Holiday shoppers are not looking for a one-size-fits-all experience," said Brian McCarthy, Deloitte's retail strategy leader. "Retailers that tailor the experience to these preferences can make holiday shopping more relevant and capture growing self-gifting demand."

Canada tells the opposite story

Cross the border and the mood flips. Deloitte Canada's Holiday Retail Outlook, released this week, projects that Canadian holiday spending will drop 14 percent to $1,305 in Canadian dollars — the lowest level since the survey began. Spending on gifts and gift cards is expected to fall five percent, while holiday entertaining and experiences drop 22 and 20 percent respectively. More than eight in ten Canadians say they are concerned about the impact of tariffs on prices and the broader economy, a pressure that is also freezing other big purchases, as Canada's housing market stalls while tariffs freeze buyers. Meanwhile, 78 percent of Canadians plan to actively hunt for discounts and promotions.

"Canadians are not cancelling the holiday season, but economic uncertainty is influencing their spending decisions, making them far more discerning," said Shaunna Conway, partner and national retail leader at Deloitte Canada, in the outlook announcement. The contrast is sharp: Americans plan to spend more and lean on younger buyers, while Canadians tighten belts and fragment their shopping across an average of 16 stores and digital destinations, up from 14 last year. More than half of Canadian budgets are expected to be spent by the end of the Black Friday and Cyber Monday window.

Why it matters for young shoppers

If you are in your teens or twenties, the retail industry is about to start designing the season around you. Expect more wish-list prompts, more personalized product options, faster delivery promises, and promotions landing earlier — October, not December. The survey's warning for retailers doubles as a tip for shoppers: the best deals will go to those who start early and compare aggressively, since value seekers are spending the most, not the least. On the Canadian side, the takeaway is simpler — plan early, stack the sales, and do not assume loyalty to local shops will survive a bad price. Either way, this is the year holiday spending stops being decided by older generations.