Holiday Seasonal Hiring May Hit Its Lowest Since 2008

If you were counting on a seasonal retail job to carry you through the holidays, 2026 may be a lean year. Holiday seasonal hiring is on track for its weakest showing since the 2008 financial crisis, according to a September 23 outlook from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which predicts retailers will add about 450,000 seasonal jobs in the fourth quarter — below even last year's dismal total. The forecast matters beyond the headlines: for students and side hustlers, it means fewer store-floor openings and a holiday job market increasingly routed through gig apps instead of hiring managers.

The numbers tell a three-year slide. Retailers added 461,500 seasonal jobs in the final quarter of 2025, the smallest holiday gain since 2008 and 15% below the 543,100 added in the last quarter of 2024, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, citing the firm's analysis of non-seasonally adjusted Bureau of Labor Statistics data. This year's prediction extends that decline for a third straight year, landing far below the 900,000-plus seasonal hiring booms of 2020 and 2021. Transportation and warehousing followed the same pattern last season, adding 266,500 positions — down 12% from the year before.

What makes the outlook striking is that shoppers have not pulled back. August retail sales jumped 1.2%, and back-to-school spending held up, Challenger reported. Yet that resilience has not translated into hiring commitments. Public seasonal hiring announcements remain thin: Spirit Halloween disclosed plans for 52,000 seasonal associates and Michaels more than 10,000, while bigger players including Amazon, Target, Bath & Body Works, and Kohl's have not yet released 2026 headcount numbers.

Why holiday seasonal hiring is shrinking

Retailers are covering the peak with a different toolkit. "Prices are still high, tariffs continue to work through supply chains, and retailers are leaning on automation, existing associates, and on-demand pools before hiring net-new seasonal workers," said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, in the firm's outlook. His shorthand for the strategy: it is "more about restocking staffing plans surgically" than rebuilding a big temporary workforce.

That last phrase — on-demand pools — is the one that matters most for anyone looking for extra work this fall. Rather than training a wave of temporary staff, retailers are routing peak-season volume to flexible, on-demand labor. As Self Employed's analysis of the outlook notes, that could mean fewer traditional seasonal jobs to fall back on, but potentially steadier demand for delivery, rideshare, and task-based gig work as companies shift volume toward platforms instead of payrolls.

What this means for your winter income

For students and part-time workers, the shift changes the playbook. The classic strategy — walk into a mall store in October, leave with a seasonal badge — is thinning out. The demand has not vanished; it has moved. Delivery and warehouse-adjacent gig platforms historically absorb overflow during the holidays, and this year's employer tilt toward on-demand labor suggests that pattern will repeat. If you need winter income, the applications to prioritize are the ones attached to flexible labor pools, not storefronts.

The backdrop makes the timing matter. Side income is already load-bearing for millions of households: a recent MoneyTalksNews survey found the median side hustler earns about $1,275 a month and puts in roughly 13 extra hours a week — the equivalent of 17 additional 40-hour work weeks over a year. More than half of those with side income run two or more gigs, the same survey reported. A thin seasonal hiring season removes one of the easiest rungs into that extra income, right when the holiday calendar demands it most.

For Gen Z readers specifically, the squeeze lands hardest on the youngest applicants. Seasonal retail has long been the entry point for holiday income because the barriers are low: no degree, no long application, shifts that fit around classes. When those postings shrink, competition for what remains gets steeper, and the alternatives — delivery routes, warehouse temp shifts, task apps — carry their own costs, from gas and vehicle wear to unpredictable schedules. The practical move is to apply earlier than feels necessary, before the October wave of applicants catches up.

There is a counterpoint worth keeping in mind. Thin early announcements do not guarantee a dead season: companies can and do staff up later in the quarter, and Challenger's figure is a prediction, not a final count. Consumer spending has held up better than many expected this year, and a strong sales season could still force retailers to add staff they did not announce in September. The trend line is down, but it is not a guarantee.

Still, the three-year trajectory is hard to ignore. Holiday retail work used to be one of the most reliable income bridges of the year — predictable, walkable, and open to anyone willing to work the floor. The industry is now choosing automation and on-demand labor over temporary hiring waves, and that choice is unlikely to reverse even if December sales come in hot. Plan accordingly.

For more on how work is changing, read why workers are ditching the 9-to-5 and visit the Side Hustles desk.