Heat stress may cost three nations billions in lost work

ABIDJAN — Rising temperatures are already cutting working time and economic output in Ethiopia, Ghana and Senegal, and new studies from the International Labour Organization project that workplace heat stress could cost the equivalent of around 2.46 million full-time jobs across the countries, with combined annual GDP losses of around US$67 billion by 2040, even under a low-emissions pathway, according to the ILO.

The projected annual GDP losses break down as 33.3 billion dollars in Ethiopia, 23.2 billion dollars in Ghana and 10.5 billion dollars in Senegal, compared with the historical reference period. The projected job-equivalent losses break down as 1.78 million in Ethiopia, 550 thousand in Ghana and 129 thousand in Senegal, measured as working time lost rather than as a count of individual workers expected to lose their jobs.

The damage is not only a future risk. The studies found substantial additional losses of working time and output in all of the countries during 2023, compared with an average year in the historical reference period. Ethiopia recorded additional losses equivalent to more than a million full-time jobs, Ghana recorded additional losses equivalent to 345 thousand full-time jobs, and Senegal recorded additional losses equivalent to 72 thousand full-time jobs.

Agriculture and construction face particular exposure because much of the work is physically demanding and takes place outdoors. The impact also reaches manufacturing, transport, trade and services, as well as workers and businesses in the informal economy, where hours are often long, shade is scarce and a shortened working day can mean lost income for necessities.

Different economies, a shared challenge

In Ethiopia, agriculture accounted for around three-quarters of the additional losses recorded in the recent reference year, reflecting how much of the workforce still depends on outdoor farm work. In Ghana, agriculture accounted for around two-thirds of the additional losses, a similar pattern in a different economy, where farming remains a large employer and much of the work cannot move indoors. In Senegal, the losses were concentrated particularly in services and agriculture, showing that heat reaches beyond the farm gate into shops, markets, transport and other everyday work.

The differences matter for policy. A measure that helps a large farm workforce may not suit a service worker in a city market, and a rule written for formal workplaces may miss informal workers altogether. The studies argue that responses need to match the conditions of different sectors and the realities of working life in each country, rather than applying a single template everywhere.

ILO Regional Director for Africa Fanfan Rwanyindo Kayirangwa said governments, employers and workers need to act together, combining stronger occupational safety and health measures with social protection, climate adaptation and economic planning. Protecting people from hot conditions, she said, also protects livelihoods, businesses and the ability of economies to withstand disruption. Her message frames worker protection as economic protection, not as a cost set against growth.

What employers and governments can do

The studies identify practical measures that can reduce the impact of rising temperatures at work. They include moving work away from the hottest hours of the day, introducing suitable work-rest cycles, and providing shade, drinking water and cooling facilities. Stronger workplace heat monitoring, occupational safety standards and awareness of the symptoms and risks of hot conditions can help workers and employers recognise danger early and act before it becomes a health emergency.

Social protection is particularly important for informal workers, who may be unable to reduce their working hours without losing essential income. Income support, access to health care and other safety nets can give workers room to take a break during dangerous heat without facing an immediate financial penalty. Dialogue between governments, employers and workers will be essential to designing measures that are practical and effective in each setting, the studies say.

The Ethiopia, Ghana and Senegal reports form part of a six-country research initiative that also covers Lebanon, the Maldives and Sri Lanka. The ILO commissioned the studies with support from the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the Vulnerable 20 Finance Ministers, with financing through the joint multi-donor fund. Researchers combined climate projections, labour market data and economic modelling to assess the current and future effects of workplace heat on productivity, employment and national economies. The findings were presented at a high-level online event on 29 October, according to the ILO, and the full studies are published on the organisation's website at the International Labour Organization.

Related coverage on this site has examined record heat deaths and the debate over a fossil fuel phaseout, while Devdiscourse also reported the new ILO studies.

Even the lower-emissions scenario in the research still shows large losses, a point that gives the findings force beyond the countries studied. It suggests that cutting emissions alone, while essential over time, will not remove the need for workplace adaptation in the years ahead, because hotter conditions are already affecting working life. Governments and businesses that plan for shade, safer hours, monitoring and income protection now, the studies argue, can limit both the human cost and the economic cost of hotter working days.