GOP super PACs abandon two House incumbents

GOP super PACs are cutting off two of their own incumbents with three weeks left before the midterms. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with House Speaker Mike Johnson, is clawing back $10 million in planned spending from four House districts, including those of Representatives Tom Kean Jr. of New Jersey and Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa, and sending the money to 16 other races instead, according to the New York Times, which first reported the move.

The decision marks the first time GOP super PACs have walked away from a sitting House incumbent this cycle, the Des Moines Register reported. A Trump-affiliated super PAC, MAGA Inc., is also halting its planned spending in the Kean and Miller-Meeks districts for the rest of the cycle, a source familiar with the plans told Fox News Digital, making it two major GOP super PACs cutting the pair loose in the same week. Both groups plan to route the freed-up cash into other House races across the country.

The races being written off

Kean's 7th District covers some of the wealthiest suburbs and exurbs of New York City, and Fox News described his and Miller-Meeks' seats as two of the most purple districts in the country. He faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett in November. A source close to Kean's campaign told Fox News Digital that "the race is fully funded down the home stretch," and noted that his campaign and House Republicans' campaign arm hold major broadcast reservations while Bennett has no outside reservations on her behalf.

Miller-Meeks is in a third rematch with Democrat Christina Bohannan, a University of Iowa law professor, with independent candidate Michael Bridgford also on the ballot in Iowa's 1st District. A spokesperson for Miller-Meeks said the campaign has the resources it needs to win, telling the Washington Examiner, "It won't work now, and on November 3 she'll beat Christina Bohannan a third time." Inside Iowa, the Congressional Leadership Fund is moving money out of the 1st District and into the state's other two competitive House races, in the 2nd and 3rd districts, the Des Moines Register reported.

The other two districts losing GOP super PAC support are Michigan's 8th and Ohio's 1st. The Washington Examiner reported that the triage also means walking away from efforts to flip the seats held by Representatives Greg Landsman, a Democrat from Ohio, and Kristen McDonald Rivet, a Democrat from Michigan. Election forecasters at the Cook Political Report shifted all three Iowa House races toward Democrats earlier this month, moving the 2nd District to a toss-up and rating the 1st and 3rd as leaning Democratic.

Why the timing matters

Chris Winkelman, the president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, defended the retreat in a statement: "For two years, we've built the resources and infrastructure that allow us to maneuver in a difficult environment. These moves keep the pressure on the most vulnerable Democrats and preserve a path to 218 seats." The 218 figure is the number of seats needed for a House majority.

The backdrop is a midterm map that has been tightening for Republicans. The Des Moines Register reported that the party is bracing for losses as the Iran war drags into its eighth month and weighs on the economy, and Fox News' latest House power rankings put Democrats ahead in enough seats to take the majority, with 19 races still rated as toss-ups. For younger voters watching their first midterm, this is how the money game works in reverse: GOP super PACs spend where they think they can win, and a public pullback is the party's quiet way of saying a seat has slipped away. With three weeks until Election Day, party committees are doing what they always do at this stage: spending where the math still works and leaving races they no longer believe they can win.

When GOP super PACs pull cash this publicly, it tells donors and voters alike where the party thinks its path to 218 runs. Kean and Miller-Meeks both say they can win without the outside help. In three weeks, the voters in New Jersey and Iowa will settle it.