Goldman Sachs Music Forecast Raised for First Time in 3 Years

The Goldman Sachs music forecast just got bumped up for the first time in years, and the reason is not what you might guess. According to Billboard, the bank's closely watched "Music in the Air" report raised its growth outlook for the first time in three years, as the industry moves from chasing new subscribers to squeezing more money out of the fans it already has.

What Goldman Sachs actually changed

The global recorded music market grew six point four percent in twenty twenty-five to thirty-one point seven billion dollars in constant currency. That beat the bank's own earlier expectations by sixty basis points, according to Billboard's reading of the report.

Looking ahead, Goldman now expects global music industry retail revenue to grow six point seven percent in twenty twenty-six. It also projects a compound annual growth rate of five point eight percent from twenty twenty-five to twenty thirty-five. For three years in a row the bank had trimmed its long-term view, so this is a real turn.

The Brazilian outlet Mundo da Música adds that the report, now in its tenth edition, sees the total global music market rising from about one hundred twelve point five billion dollars in twenty twenty-five to one hundred ninety-eight point one billion in twenty thirty-five. That figure covers recorded music, publishing rights and live shows together.

Why the Goldman Sachs music forecast is about price hikes

The big shift is where growth comes from. Billboard reports that the next chapter leans on more frequent subscription price increases, live events, and sales of physical formats, downloads and other digital products, plus synch revenue. Ad-supported streaming, meanwhile, is expected to matter less, with growth slowing by one to three percent.

In plain terms, the era of adding millions of new streaming users is cooling off. The next era is about getting the people already paying to pay a bit more, more often. If your streaming bill keeps creeping up, this report explains the strategy behind it.

Subscription streaming actually missed expectations in twenty twenty-five, growing eight point eight percent against a forecast of nine percent. Goldman blames the push into emerging markets, where revenue per user is lower, along with discounted and bundled plans.

Vinyl is the surprise winner

Here is the part that should make crate diggers smile. Physical sales grew eight percent year over year, far above the one point four percent Goldman had predicted. Vinyl demand rose nearly fourteen percent, driven in part by superfans in Japan, South Korea and the United States.

It is a neat reminder that fans who love an artist will pay for something they can hold. Goldman's own earlier research has pointed to a booming superfan market, and this year's numbers back that up.

Family plan sharing could be next

One detail is already making waves. According to Music Business Worldwide, the report says streaming services could capture more value by tightening the rules on family plans. Goldman estimates a meaningful share of family plan users are friends splitting the cost rather than real household members.

The bank points to Netflix's crackdown on password sharing and argues music apps have comparable room to add periodic address checks. If you split a plan with your group chat, keep an eye on your inbox.

Not everything beat expectations

Goldman did cut its view on two areas. Synch revenue contracted two percent when the bank expected six percent growth, and performance rights rose just zero point three percent against a six percent forecast. Billboard notes part of the reason was a slower rebound from the twenty twenty-three Hollywood writers' strike.

The bank also expects recorded music rights-holder revenue to grow at a five point nine percent compound rate over the next decade. That is solid, but it depends on labels and platforms continuing to raise prices without losing listeners.

What it means for fans and artists

For listeners, expect higher subscription prices, tighter family plan rules and more limited-edition vinyl drops. For artists, the numbers suggest that touring, merch and physical releases will keep mattering as much as streams. Follow more music news on GenZ NewZ as the industry reacts.

The takeaway is simple. Music is not shrinking, it is maturing, and the money is moving from sheer user growth toward charging more for devotion. Whether fans accept that bargain will decide if Goldman's rosier forecast holds up.