Early Voting Record Set as Midterms Enter Final Days

More than 51 million Americans had already cast a ballot by Saturday, setting an early voting record for a midterm election, according to the University of Florida Election Lab figures reported by Reuters. The ballots arrived in person or by mail ahead of Tuesday, November 3, when voters will decide control of Congress for the remaining years of President Donald Trump's term.

The advance total passed the 45.9 million ballots cast before Election Day in the previous midterm cycle in 2022, with voting still open in parts of the country when the count crossed that mark. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot, along with 35 Senate contests. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate and a narrow edge in the House, so the outcome will determine whether the president's party keeps control of Congress or loses ground to Democrats.

In-person voting accounts for much of the increase. More than 28 million people had already voted early in person by Saturday, compared with about 20.5 million across the whole early voting period in the previous cycle. That shift matters for interpretation. A ballot cast in October can replace a ballot that would otherwise have been cast on Election Day, so a larger advance total does not by itself prove that final turnout will rise by the same margin.

State comparisons show the same caution. Texas recorded more than seven million early votes, already above its full early total from the previous cycle. An Associated Press analysis found early voting running ahead of the same point in the previous cycle in several Senate battlegrounds, including Michigan, where the increase stood at 32 percent. Michigan is holding its initial midterm with statewide early in-person voting after voters approved the option in a ballot measure, so part of the rise reflects a newly available method rather than a like-for-like surge in participation.

What the early numbers do not show

Early totals describe participation, not results. Ballots are not counted by candidate before Election Day in most states, and the national total says nothing about which candidates the voters who have already cast ballots chose. Party registration data offers only a partial picture. In the states that report registration for early voters, Scripps News put Democrats at 43.2 percent, Republicans at 31.7 percent and independent or unaffiliated voters at 25.1 percent at its Saturday snapshot.

Those shares cover reporting states only and describe registration, not vote choice. A registered Democrat can vote for a Republican candidate, a registered Republican can cross party lines, and unaffiliated voters cannot be assigned to either side from registration alone. The Election Day electorate is also missing from the figures, which means the early registration balance could narrow or widen once the remaining votes are cast.

Public confidence in the count remains broad, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from September 30 to October 5. In that poll, 76 percent of voters said they were confident their ballots would be counted accurately, with confidence about equally high among Republicans and Democrats. That finding sits alongside the legal disputes of the final weekend, which have focused less on turnout than on which ballots should count and under what conditions.

California and Alaska disputes reach the final weekend

In California, a federal appeals court ruled 2-1 during the week that the Justice Department had failed to justify an emergency bid to force the state to set aside mail ballots from more than twenty thousand registered voters it alleges are likely noncitizens. Acting Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter told Fox News on Saturday that the administration would probably take the fight to the Supreme Court before Tuesday, in a statement reported by Reuters.

California Governor Gavin Newsom warned the state's top federal judges on Saturday that federal agents could seek warrants to seize ballots and ballot materials before results are certified, according to Reuters. Newsom said in a letter to the judges that he had "grave concerns" about such a step, and that the only reason to use search warrants would be to interfere with the lawful counting of ballots. Newsom added that he did not know of any pending request for such warrants.

Separately, a federal judge ordered the Justice Department on Friday to stop threatening to prosecute California election officials who refuse to comply with its election-related demands, in a ruling reported by Reuters. California has said the Justice Department's assertions relied on suspect data and that complying with its demands would risk disenfranchising eligible voters. The administration has alleged noncitizen registrations in California, though the state and many specialists have questioned the validity of the list, and the Justice Department has not said how many people on the list have actually submitted ballots.

In Alaska, federal prosecutors are investigating whether aides to Democratic challenger Mary Peltola helped recruit a retired schoolteacher, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., to run because his name is similar to that of Republican incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan. Peltola and the campaign committee have denied involvement in any effort to recruit the other Sullivan, and the retired teacher has denied coordinating with Peltola's campaign. The closely contested race is seen as important to Democratic hopes of taking the Senate, and the Justice Department's top prosecutor in Alaska said at a Friday press conference that investigative steps were taking place intensely and swiftly.

Trump spent Saturday at his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida, after a campaign blitz across multiple states during the past month, according to Reuters. He returns to the campaign trail on Sunday in Kansas and Iowa. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers in another closely watched Senate race, where a feud with the rival El-Sayed beat in the primary flared again during the week, adding a further distraction for Democrats in the closing days.

What happens next

Early voting windows are closing state by state, and the remaining vote follows local rules. North Carolina ended early in-person voting on Saturday afternoon, and voters there must use their assigned Election Day precinct on Tuesday rather than assume an early voting location remains available. Georgia's early voting ended Friday.

Subpoenaed employees of the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder have been ordered to appear in court on November 4, as the California disputes continue past Election Day. The count itself will follow state procedures, with certification to come after Tuesday's ballots are tallied alongside the advance votes already received.