Brazil runoff puts Lula and Bolsonaro in dead heat

Brazilians are voting on Sunday in a Brazil runoff that will decide whether President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins a fourth term or Senator Flávio Bolsonaro returns his family to the presidency. More than 158 million people are eligible to vote, according to Brazil's electoral authorities, and the count is expected to take shape within hours of polls closing because Brazil votes electronically.

Polling stations opened in the morning and close in the late afternoon Brasília time. The Superior Electoral Court, known as the TSE, plans to publish results as figures arrive from electronic voting machines, according to reporting on the court's plans. A first update will not settle the race, since the lead can change as more areas report.

Bolsonaro led the first round on 4 October with 47.03 per cent of valid votes, against 45.16 per cent for Lula, according to the TSE. Bolsonaro received 56.1 million votes and Lula received 53.9 million votes. Neither candidate reached the majority needed to win outright, so the contest moved to a runoff. Turnout in the first round was 78.92 per cent.

Final surveys point to a finish too close to call. Datafolha put the pair exactly level among valid votes in its closing survey, while other final surveys also placed them inside their margins of error. Lula narrowed the gap during the runoff campaign after trailing Bolsonaro in the first round, according to a Reuters review of final polls.

A campaign fought over living costs and crime

Bolsonaro campaigned on tougher action against organised crime, lower taxes and reductions in public spending, according to Reuters. He also pledged to free his father if elected. Lula centred his campaign on defending his government's social agenda, including welfare and social benefits, according to reports of the closing rallies.

The economic picture is mixed for the incumbent. Inequality and unemployment have fallen under Lula, according to Reuters, yet many voters face high living costs and heavy household debt. Gang violence also weighs on voters, Reuters reported, and the campaign was marked by corruption scandals and accusations of United States meddling, which Washington denies.

The candidates closed with large rallies on Saturday. Lula appeared before supporters on Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro and on Paulista Avenue in São Paulo, while Bolsonaro joined a motorcycle caravan in Belo Horizonte and a march in Rio de Janeiro, according to reports of the final weekend. The pair had faced each other in a final televised debate on Friday, where they clashed over the cost of living.

Washington, tariffs and Jair Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted for plotting a coup after his defeat in the 2022 presidential election and sentenced to more than 27 years in prison. His lawyers describe the proceedings as illegitimate and politically motivated, according to reports of the case. Flávio Bolsonaro entered the presidential race after receiving his father's backing last December.

United States President Donald Trump has called the case against Jair Bolsonaro a witch hunt and imposed a tariff of 50 per cent on Brazil in 2025, in a decision explicitly linked to the trial, according to Reuters. Many of those tariffs were later watered down, Reuters reported, and Trump imposed new levies against Brazil this year, citing unfair trade practices. Lula has cast the Trump administration's closeness to the Bolsonaro family as an attempt to sway the election and has labelled tariffs and other punitive measures as bullying, according to Reuters.

A Bolsonaro victory would extend a wave of right-wing victories in Latin America by candidates friendly to Trump, according to Reuters, while another Lula term would disappoint Washington, which has clashed with his government over trade and security. The result will therefore shape Brazil's relationship with the United States as well as its domestic policy direction.

What to watch as results arrive

Readers can follow the official count through the TSE results portal and its Resultados mobile app, which show the share of votes counted and each candidate's totals, according to reporting on the court's plans. The TSE also plans live election-night coverage on its official YouTube channel. Brazil's electronic system usually produces a result within hours, but the court has not set a guaranteed time for declaring a winner.

Turnout may prove decisive. In the first round, 21.08 per cent of the electorate did not vote, and those voters remain entitled to vote on Sunday. Most pre-election surveys had pointed to a narrow Lula lead in the first round, yet Bolsonaro finished ahead, according to reports of the polling record. That miss is a reminder that polls are estimates rather than results.

The legislative picture also matters for whoever wins. The Liberal Party strengthened its standing in the National Congress in the first round, according to reports of the October vote. That gain could complicate governing for Lula if he wins, while a Bolsonaro presidency would still need Congress to pass its programme. Sources: Reuters report on Sunday's vote and reporting on when Brazil's results will appear.