Alberta Referendum Poll: 70% Want to Stay in Canada

The latest Alberta referendum poll has a clear message ten days before voters decide whether the province stays in Canada: about seven in ten Albertans want to remain. According to the Calgary Herald, a Leger survey found 70 per cent favour staying, up from 65 per cent in August, while 22 per cent back starting the legal process toward separation and 7 per cent are undecided.

The vote is on Oct. 19, and the stakes go beyond one ballot line. Albertans will answer ten questions, including five on immigration and four on the Constitution, plus the big one on separatism. If you have been scrolling past this story, here is what the numbers actually say and why the mood around the vote matters even if the result looks lopsided.

What the Alberta referendum poll found

Leger surveyed 1,001 Alberta residents online between Oct. 2 and 4. The results were weighted by age, gender, region and education. The polling industry body, the Canadian Research Insights Council, notes that online surveys cannot be given a margin of error because they do not randomly sample the population, so treat the exact figures as a snapshot, not a prediction.

Still, the direction is steady. Leger executive vice-president Andrew Enns told the Herald that previous polling has generally shown about 70 per cent support for remaining in Canada, 20 per cent for pursuing a separation referendum and roughly 10 per cent undecided. The new numbers are consistent with that pattern, with a small bump for the remain side.

Who is actually going to vote

Turnout is the real wildcard. The poll found 77 per cent of respondents rate their likelihood of voting at eight out of 10 or higher, up from 68 per cent in August. For comparison, the Edmonton Journal notes that provincial or federal elections usually see only 50 to 60 per cent commit to casting ballots.

Enns said he was surprised that remain supporters appear more motivated than separation supporters. Some 91 per cent of remain voters rated their certainty at eight or higher, compared with 71 per cent of those backing a binding separation referendum. In his words, "Ordinarily, I would have thought that the intensity to get out and vote might have been higher with those who want Alberta to separate, but (that is) not the case in our polls."

Forever Canadian leader Thomas Lukaszuk says his group has been touring the province on a unity bus since July 2025. His message, according to the Herald: this is "the one vote where there is no place for apathy." Elections Alberta has also projected record turnout, as reported by Global News.

The UCP split Premier Smith has to manage

The most interesting detail is inside the governing party. The Herald reports that while nearly all NDP supporters favour staying in Canada, United Conservative Party supporters are almost evenly divided on separation. The Edmonton Journal adds that 48 per cent of UCP members told Leger they intend to vote for option two, holding a binding referendum, compared with 43 per cent who will vote to stay.

Premier Danielle Smith has said she plans to vote to stay in Canada. She has also called 50 per cent plus one the threshold for the separatism question, but according to CBC News, she was unclear on Thursday when asked what counts as a strong mandate on the other nine questions about immigration and constitutional issues.

Smith and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe also rejected a call from Elon Musk for their provinces to separate, CBC reported. Separatist leaders are separately disputing a Globe and Mail account of their meetings with U.S. State Department officials and Republican strategists, with MPs in Ottawa pressing for a federal response, according to Canada News Media.

The mood matters as much as the margin

The poll also shows a province on edge. A majority, 58 per cent, say Alberta is on the wrong track, versus 36 per cent who say it is heading in the right direction. Half expect the debate to hurt the economy, and 21 per cent say they have cut household spending because of referendum uncertainty, up from 14 per cent in August.

For younger Albertans, the social cost is sharper. Thirty per cent of respondents say talking about separation has caused tension with family, friends, coworkers or neighbours, and that jumps to 44 per cent among people aged 18 to 34. Enns put the open question plainly: "Do they get back to normal?"

What happens next

Between now and Oct. 19, expect campaigns on both sides to push hard on turnout. Separatist organisers have already said the fight for independence will not end after the vote, as CBC News reported from the Alberta Prosperity Project leader. Quebec, where the Parti Québécois has just formed a minority government, adds another layer to the national unity story.

A one-sided Alberta referendum poll does not guarantee a one-sided result, and a win for remain would not erase the divisions inside the UCP or between generations. If you are in Alberta, check your voting options with Elections Alberta, and follow our Canadian news and politics coverage for results night.